Peak oil has been nearly, just round the corner, for a long time. Now it actually seems like it many really be imminent.

With a finite commodity there was always going to come a day when it would peak. Ten, even five years ago, that peak was very difficult to predict with any real accuracy.

Things have changed in the last couple of years. The Ukraine war and the faster than expected uptake in electric vehicles have hastened the possibility of a world without the need for oil. Or at least not nearly so very much oil.

We will likely still use some oil in a hundred years time, but none of it will be burned. It will be talked about in history books for even longer.

Human oil use will not disappear over a cliff. Instead, there will be a steady decline for several decades.

Locations where oil is the most expensive to extract will shut first. For example, decades from now, there may be no offshore oil installations. Oil will be produced where it is easiest and cheapest.

People working in the industry, don't need to worry just yet. In ten years, oil production will be where it is today. Demand and therefore production will increase over the next few years, perhaps to 2030. By 2033, it could be just back down to where we are today and then it will likely decline further at a slow but steady pace. As time goes by, more jobs will be lost to retirement than redundancy.

More On This

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• Washington Post
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About The Author
Aba Selassie
Chewells Contributor

Aba is a social media expert and heads our jobs team. ... »

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Replies

• Yorky (Oct 12, 2023)
  Decarbonising the oil industry is a safer option in the short and medium term.
• Aba Selassie (Aug 7, 2023)
  (Marky) That's interesting Marky. I've read elsewhere predictions as late as 2040. I reckon the way things are going, it will happen before 2050. But you never know and I'm not putting any money on it.
• Marky (Aug 7, 2023)
  Not before 2050
• Mo Mo (June 20, 2023)
  Peak oil has been slipping forward since I was as tall as an oil barrel.
• Joe (June 18, 2023)
  It'll be less of a peak and more of a plateau where oil production is down a smidge one year, then back up a smidge and so on for a few years. So, there will be a few peaks until the long term decline sets in. I'm predicting 2040 before we are in to the decline proper.
• Jokka (June 12, 2023)
  If everyone decided to buy an electric car this year, assuming the car manufacturers could build enough cars, never mind the battery materials like lithium, where would we get all the electricity necessary to charge the batteries?
• Hamaz (June 12, 2023)
  I can't imagine a world without oil!

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